Japan go through with a draw against Sweden, who must win to survive

Where the group stands

After two rounds, Japan and the Netherlands both sit on four points with a goal difference of plus four. The Netherlands are first only because they have scored one more goal — seven to Japan's six. Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands and then beat Tunisia 4-0; the Dutch drew that same game with Japan and thrashed Sweden 5-1. Sweden are third on three points, having beaten Tunisia before that heavy loss to the Netherlands. Tunisia, beaten twice, are out.

What each side needs

The maths is clean. A draw lifts Japan to five points, which Sweden cannot reach, so a draw guarantees Japan finish above them and inside the top two — through to the last 16. A win could even mean topping the group, depending on how the Netherlands fare against Tunisia at the same time. Sweden have no margin: only a win keeps them alive, and even then they need results to fall their way. That gap in stakes — Japan needing a point, Sweden needing three — should shape how both teams play from the first whistle.

Japan without Kubo

Takefusa Kubo has now been ruled out of this match. He stayed behind in Nashville rather than travelling to Dallas, continuing treatment on the left knee he hurt against the Netherlands on June 14. Japan are aiming to have him back for the knockout rounds, though a report in Spain has cast doubt on even that timeline. Either way, the creative load falls to the right — Junya Ito, Ritsu Doan and Keito Nakamura — to break a Sweden side that will likely sit deeper and counter. How Japan generate chances without their playmaker is the match's central question.

Sweden's strikers under the microscope

Sweden's billing rests on the Alexander Isak–Viktor Gyokeres partnership, but Swedish media have argued for days that the two world-class strikers are not clicking together. Against the Netherlands, both started and neither scored in a 1-5 defeat. With elimination on the line, whether Sweden's front two finally combine — or whether Japan's defence keeps them quiet again — will go a long way to deciding it.

For Japanese readers

This is the one that matters: win or draw and Japan are into the knockout rounds. Kickoff is 08:00 JST on Friday, June 26, from Arlington, shown on NHK General and streamed free on DAZN in Japan. Keep one eye on Tunisia vs Netherlands alongside it, since that game decides whether Japan finish first or second.